The first quarter of 2025 has solidified a multi-year downturn in U.S. firearms and accessory sales, with total gun purchases falling to approximately 3.8 million units—a 12% decline compared to Q1 2024. This contraction reflects broader macroeconomic pressures, market saturation from the 2020–2023 buying surge, and shifting consumer preferences toward specialized products. For Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs), adapting to these trends requires a nuanced understanding of which categories retain demand, which are faltering, and how pricing strategies intersect with evolving buyer behavior.
Market Overview: Contraction and Consolidation
Declining Volumes Amid Economic Uncertainty
U.S. firearm sales in Q1 2025 totaled roughly 3.8 million units, extending a downward trajectory that began in late 2023. This represents a 12% year-over-year drop from Q1 2024 and a 42% decline from the pandemic-driven peak of 2020. Ammunition sales followed suit, with major manufacturers like AMMO, Inc. reporting a 9.6% revenue decrease in their ammunition segment ($18.7 million in Q1 2025 vs. $20.8 million in Q1 2024). The average price per firearm remained stable at $680–$720, though consumers increasingly prioritized modular designs and concealed carry-ready models over premium-priced tactical rifles.
Legislative and Cultural Drivers
The Biden administration’s focus on renewing the assault weapons ban—though stalled in Congress—has dampened enthusiasm for semi-automatic rifles, while state-level “red flag” laws in markets like Washington and Illinois have further suppressed sales. Conversely, the Supreme Court’s anticipated ruling on New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen (expanding concealed carry rights) has sustained interest in compact handguns and holster systems.
Fastest-Selling Product Categories in Q1 2025
1. Concealed Carry Pistols
The SIG Sauer P365 retained its dominance as the best-selling firearm overall, with Q1 2025 sales rising 8% year-over-year. Its micro-compact design, 10+1 capacity, and aftermarket support (e.g., interchangeable grip modules) made it a favorite among both new buyers and existing owners seeking upgrades. Competitors like the Glock 43X and Smith & Wesson Shield Plus similarly outperformed the broader market, driven by urban buyers prioritizing self-defense.
2. .22 LR Training and Plinking Rifles
The Ruger 10/22, a perennial leader in rimfire sales, saw a 5% sales increase in Q1 2025 as recreational shooters sought affordable practice options. Ammunition costs for centerfire cartridges (e.g., 9mm, .223 Remington) have risen 14% since 2024, making .22 LR an economical alternative for training. Bundling rifles with optics-ready rails and introductory ammunition packages proved effective for retailers.
3. Smart Firearm Accessories
Innovations showcased at SHOT Show 2025 drove demand for tech-enhanced accessories. The ClayCopter automated clay launcher (adjustable flight patterns up to 100 yards) and TrackingPoint’s Bluetooth-enabled scopes (real-time ballistic data syncing) emerged as top sellers, particularly among competitive shooters and hunting enthusiasts.
Steepest Declines: Categories Losing Traction
1. High-Capacity Semi-Automatic Rifles
Sales of AR-15-platform rifles fell 22% in Q1 2025, reflecting both political uncertainty and market saturation. Over 14 million AR-style rifles entered circulation between 2020 and 2023, leaving fewer first-time buyers. Proposals to ban rifles with detachable magazines exceeding 10 rounds (Category A7 under the revised EU Firearms Directive) further chilled demand, despite the U.S. lacking comparable federal restrictions.
2. Pump-Action Shotguns
Once a staple for home defense, pump shotguns like the Mossberg 500 and Remington 870 declined 18% year-over-year as buyers shifted toward semi-automatic models with reduced recoil and faster follow-up capabilities.
3. Bulk Ammunition Packs
Economic pressures reduced discretionary spending on bulk ammunition (1,000-round cases), with sales falling 15% compared to Q1 202. Consumers instead purchased smaller 50- or 100-round boxes, prioritizing immediate needs over stockpiling.
Pricing and Accessory Trends
Average Firearm Price: $680–$720
Mid-priced handguns ($500–$800) accounted for 64% of Q1 2025 transactions, while premium rifles ($1,500+) represented just 9% of sales. This reflects a focus on practical utility over collectibility.
Top-Performing Accessories
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Modular Upgrades: Aftermarket slides, threaded barrels, and optic-cut plates for SIG P320/P365 and Glock platforms.
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Training Tools: Laser-emitting cartridges (e.g., LASR software-compatible rounds) and recoil-reducing muzzle devices.
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Concealed Carry Solutions: Appendix Inside-the-Waistband (AIWB) holsters with adjustable cant and breathable materials.
Strategic Recommendations for FFLs
1. Prioritize Concealed Carry Inventory
Stock micro-compact pistols from SIG Sauer, Glock, and Smith & Wesson, emphasizing their suitability for urban self-defense and state-level permit reciprocity. Offer complimentary concealed carry permit courses to drive foot traffic.
2. Bundle Affordable Training Packages
Pair .22 LR rifles with entry-level optics and ammunition subscriptions (e.g., monthly 500-round deliveries). Highlight the Ruger 10/22’s aftermarket support for customization.
3. Clear Excess Rifle and Shotgun Inventory
Discount slow-moving AR-15s and pump shotguns by 10–15%, bundling them with free range passes or cleaning kits. Emphasize their utility for home defense to counteract negative media narratives.
4. Showcase Smart Accessories
Dedicate store displays to tech-driven products like the ClayCopter and electronic ear protection with Bluetooth. Host demo days to familiarize customers with these innovations.
5. Leverage Consignment Sales
Encourage customers to trade in lightly used firearms for store credit, then resell these at a 20–30% discount. This attracts budget-conscious buyers without sacrificing margins.
Conclusion: Adapting to a New Normal
The U.S. firearms market has transitioned from panic-driven growth to selective, value-oriented purchasing. For FFLs, success in 2025 hinges on curating inventory to match shifting self-defense priorities, promoting training and accessories over standalone firearm sales, and leveraging consignment models to serve cost-sensitive buyers. While legislative risks persist, retailers who emphasize adaptability and customer education will withstand the downturn—and position themselves to capitalize when demand rebounds.
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